Risk Management Tool

Portfolio Risk Calculator

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Analyze correlation, diversification, and total Value at Risk (VaR) across up to 10 positions. See what your portfolio really looks like — beyond the ticker count.

Quick Templates

Load a sample portfolio to see how the calculator works, then customize it.

Build Your Portfolio

Add up to 10 positions. Symbols are matched against the built-in correlation matrix; unknown symbols default to 0.3 correlation with everything.

# Symbol Size ($) Direction Daily Vol %

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Why Correlation Matters More Than Position Count

Most retail traders equate "number of positions" with "diversification". That is a dangerous shortcut. A trader long EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD holds four tickers but one bet: short USD. If the dollar spikes 1%, all four positions lose simultaneously. Correlation — not count — determines real diversification.

The 2008 and 2020 Lesson: Correlations Go to 1

During normal markets, gold and equities show correlation around -0.2 to +0.1. During the October 2008 Lehman crisis and the March 2020 COVID crash, correlations between "uncorrelated" assets spiked to 0.8-0.95 within days. Why? Margin calls. When leveraged traders face losses in one asset, they sell whatever they can — including their hedges. Gold, bonds, crypto, and equities all fell together.

This is why the calculator includes a Crisis Mode stress test — it recomputes your VaR assuming all correlations go to 1.0. If your crisis VaR is 2-3× your normal VaR, your portfolio is less diversified than you think.

How Value at Risk (VaR) Is Calculated Here

We use the parametric (variance-covariance) method:

The 1.645 multiplier corresponds to the 95th percentile of a normal distribution. Real markets have fatter tails, so treat VaR as a lower bound on actual risk.

How to Actually Diversify

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Value at Risk (VaR) and how is it calculated?
Value at Risk (VaR) at 95% confidence estimates the maximum loss your portfolio could suffer on a typical bad day (worst 5% of cases). We use the parametric method: VaR = 1.645 × portfolio standard deviation, where the portfolio SD accounts for the correlation matrix between all positions. A VaR of $2,000 on a $100k portfolio means there is a 5% chance of losing more than $2,000 in a single day.
Why does correlation matter more than position count?
Holding 10 positions that all move together (e.g., EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD) is not diversification — it is one bet dressed up as ten. True diversification requires assets with low or negative correlations. The calculator computes the Effective Number of Positions (ENP), which often reveals that a 10-position portfolio behaves like only 2-3 independent bets.
What is the Diversification Score?
The Diversification Score (0-100%) compares your actual portfolio risk against the naive sum of individual position risks. A score of 100% means your positions are perfectly uncorrelated (maximum diversification benefit). A score near 0% means all positions move in lockstep — you have concentration risk dressed as diversification.
What happened to correlations in 2008 and 2020?
During the 2008 financial crisis and the March 2020 COVID crash, correlations between "uncorrelated" assets spiked toward 1.0. Stocks, gold, corporate bonds, and even crypto sold off together as investors scrambled for USD cash. This is why the calculator includes a Crisis Mode stress test — it recomputes VaR assuming all correlations go to 1, showing you the worst-case exposure.
How can I actually reduce portfolio risk?
Three levers work: (1) reduce concentration — no single position should exceed 15-20% of the portfolio; (2) add genuinely uncorrelated assets — gold vs stocks, USD cash vs risk assets, inverse ETFs; (3) reduce position sizes when volatility rises. Adding more correlated positions does NOT reduce risk — it only spreads the same bet across more tickers.
Risk Disclaimer: This calculator is an educational tool using parametric Value-at-Risk assumptions (normal distribution, historical correlations). Real markets exhibit fat tails and correlation regime shifts — actual losses can substantially exceed VaR estimates, especially during crises. Past performance and historical volatilities do not guarantee future results. Trading CFDs, forex, and crypto involves substantial risk of loss. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before risking capital.